Legends of the Track: Betting the 2YO's at Churchill, Muth's Fever Shakes Up The Preakness, Afleet Alex's Stunning Preakness Glory + Finding value after the Muth Scratch!
Thursday Edition - May 16th, 2024 (Edition 87)
IN TODAY’S EMAIL
Good Morning!
Today, we're taking a trip down memory lane to revisit one of the most jaw-dropping moments in horse racing history. Remember the 2005 Preakness Stakes, Afleet Alex picked himself up off of his knees after he was sideswiped at the top of the Preakness stretch by Scrappy T and then charged to an unforgettable victory.
Switching gears to this Saturday's Preakness Stakes, there's been a bit of a shake-up. Muth, a big favorite coming into the race, has had to bow out due to a fever caught just after arriving in Baltimore from California. Bob Baffert was left with no choice but to pull him from the lineup after he spiked a fever of 103.
Now, with Muth out of the picture, the betting landscape has changed dramatically. We've got Jeff from Charting Horse Values on board to help us find those hidden gems that could turn a profit in light of this news.
And speaking of bets, the 2-year-olds are back at Churchill Downs and the 2YO EdgeMan is here to guide us through today’s field.
Finally, we're jetting off to Britain. Today at York, don't miss the seasonal return of Big Evs, the lightning-fast sprinter, in the British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes. After wowing fans around the globe and grabbing a victory at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, he's back for his 3 year old campaign.
Rider’s Up!
Steve
GREATEST WINNERS OF THE PREAKNESS STAKES
Afleet Alex: Amazing Athlete Earned Improbable Preakness Win (USA)
Afleet Alex and jockey Jeremy Rose win the 2004 Sanford Stakes, their first of many graded stakes wins. (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)
Everyone has an opinion in horse racing. It’s one of the most alluring aspects of the sport. Debates rage about which horse was better, which performance was greater, or which rivalry was the most memorable.
Handicappers, racing writers, and fans rarely — in fact, almost never — agree.
But there is one performance that stands out as unequivocally one of the best races a horse has ever delivered on the Triple Crown stage: Afleet Alex’s Preakness Stakes victory in 2005.
Eighteen years ago, racing fans witnessed one of the most remarkable performances in the history of the U.S. Triple Crown. The fact that it came from a horse with whom many had developed a deep, personal connection to because of his affiliation with the pediatric cancer charity Alex’s Lemonade Stand made that much more special.
When Afleet Alex picked himself up off of his knees after he was sideswiped at the top of the Preakness stretch by Scrappy T and then charged to an unforgettable victory, he carried the 120 or so pounds of jockey Jeremy Rose across the finish line in addition to the hopes and dreams of his breeder, owners, trainer, and fan base.
Read the Full Article at americasbestracing.net
Watch Afleet Alex picked himself up off of his knees to win the 2005 Preakness
THE PREAKNESS STAKES
Temperature Knocks Muth Out Of Preakness
Arkansas Derby winner and morning-line favorite for middle jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown spiked a 103 temperature after arriving in Baltimore
Preakness Stakes (G1) morning line favorite Muth has been declared out of Saturday’s race after spiking a temperature after arriving at Pimlico in Baltimore, Md., from his Southern California base late Tuesday night.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner spiked a temperature of 103 and he had no choice but to scratch.
“We are sick about this. The horse had been doing really well,” Baffert said. “But we have to do what’s right by the horse.”
Read the full article at paulickreport.com
BETTING THE PREAKNESS
Finding the value plays with Charting Horse Value after the Muth scratch!
The Preakness stakes is traditionally won by horses on or close to the lead and this year the pace appears slow. There are only 8 horses entered which should also keep the pace modest.
Rain is in the forecast and if the track is wet you have to give an additional advantage to horses on or close to the lead. Let’s break down the field horse by horse.
Note, the post time odds the last couple years for the Preakness were bizarre with long shots badly over bet. This is a good race to bet on.
Mugatu - On bottom of chart and arguably slowest horse in the race. I expect this horse to finish 7th or 8th. Toss.
Uncle Heavy - Sprinter pedigree. Wide draw really hurt his chances in the Wood. A muddy track and inside draw help him. Useable at bottom of trifectas if race comes up sloppy. Otherwise toss.
Catching Freedom - On top of chart with coveted sA+ grade and $19 of value. I won’t talk anybody off of him. But he is going to take a lot of action and his running style is a big disadvantage. He benefited from a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby (all the speed collapsed). His Thorograph (TG) speed figure was as good as Mystik Dan’s. The field is small and a couple horses in here have no shot so Prat might get a good trip to set up this horse’s run. I think he is a strong play to hit the board.
Muth (scratched)
Read the full article at the chv23.substack.com
YORK
Big Evs back on path Appleby team hopes is paved with sprinting gold
Tongue out for Big Evs at Goodwood on his way to Group 3 success for Blue PointCredit: Alan Crowhurst
Sprinting star Big Evs makes his comeback in the British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes at York on Thursday.
The Mick Appleby-trained Blue Point colt was a huge success story as a two-year-old, winning the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot and the Molecomb at Goodwood before stepping out of the juvenile division to chance his arm on the Knavesmire in the Nunthorpe Stakes.
There he was defeated when considered to have been returned to the track too quickly after his last run, but in the Flying Childers he bounced straight back to form and his trade was then plied with great success overseas when he brought home the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.
That outing at Santa Anita in November was his last sighting on a racecourse, with this Listed event now the first step in his three-year-old season, where he is either favourite or vying for favouritism in the King Charles III Stakes (formerly the King’s Stand) on the opening day of Royal Ascot.
Read the full article at attheraces.com
Betting The Two Year Olds
2YO Maiden Special Weight ‘Picks, Plays and Pontification’ – Churchill Downs (USA)
By The 2YO EdgeMan
CD2:051624 – 5f on the Dirt. Seven colts and one filly do battle in this unrestricted event. Sires of note include Maclean’s Music, Uncle Mo, Carvaggio, and Daredevil who has two in here. Add to that list two First-Crop sires – Tiz The Law and Game Winner. On the trainer side, I’ve circled the names of Asumussen who’s got two entered, along with one each from McEntee, Ward, and Jack L. Hancock. Let’s get after it…
#2 – Empress Julia (2/1) – The Morning Line favorite comes from the Wesley Ward barn and she’s the lone filly that will be facing down the boys today. She is sired by Uncle Mo and was thrown by a Pioneerof the Nile mare – that cross has seen three runners perform in 2YO MSW events with a purse of $30,000+ and one of those was successful in her third start at two. Mom won half of her six races on the track, including her third start in October of her two-year-old campaign at Remington Park (76 Equibase Speed Figure). She has only produced one other foal of racing age – a colt that won second time out at two in June at Ellis Park (72 EBSF). Today’s runner is a homebred from Three Chimneys Farm who has worked out five times, all at KEE, with her last two covering a half mile. The first two drills were three panel bullets – 4/15/24 and 4/22/24 – 36.4 seconds and 36 seconds, respectively (both were 1/18). Her third was solid, too – 35 flat from the gate on 4/28/24 (3/22). Walter Rodriguez gets the call to ride.
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Riders Up!
Best, Steve